base rate fallacy Archives - CLIPPING CHAINS https://clippingchains.com/tag/base-rate-fallacy/ Funding the Adventurous Life Sat, 18 May 2024 18:00:20 +0000 en-US hourly 1 https://wordpress.org/?v=7.0 https://i0.wp.com/clippingchains.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/09/cropped-TEST_CC_Logo-1.png?fit=32%2C32&ssl=1 base rate fallacy Archives - CLIPPING CHAINS https://clippingchains.com/tag/base-rate-fallacy/ 32 32 150809980 The Illusion of Skill and How to Make Better Predictions https://clippingchains.com/2024/05/20/how-to-make-better-predictions/ https://clippingchains.com/2024/05/20/how-to-make-better-predictions/#respond Mon, 20 May 2024 06:00:00 +0000 https://clippingchains.com/?p=10073 Imagine being faced with the daunting task of predicting the future with nothing but incomplete information and a handful of hunches. Perhaps you’re considering new experiences, like travel or moving to a different town. When I imagined quitting my job, I envisioned a happier world, free from the perceived burden of corporate work. In the …

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]]> https://clippingchains.com/2024/05/20/how-to-make-better-predictions/feed/ 0 10073 The Psychology Behind Poor Investments and Other Important Decisions https://clippingchains.com/2024/02/12/base-rate-fallacy/ https://clippingchains.com/2024/02/12/base-rate-fallacy/#respond Mon, 12 Feb 2024 15:00:00 +0000 https://clippingchains.com/?p=9903 When we make important decisions, we are often not as rational or objective as we’d like to believe. The base rate fallacy is the tendency to misjudge the probability of a situation by not accounting for all relevant information. This cognitive bias affects everything from first impressions to voting preferences to broad market behavior. Listen …

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