The Illusion of Skill and How to Make Better Predictions

Imagine being faced with the daunting task of predicting the future with nothing but incomplete information and a handful of hunches. Perhaps you’re considering new experiences, like travel or moving to a different town. When I imagined quitting my job, I envisioned a happier world, free from the perceived burden of corporate work. In the following months, however, my expectations were shattered upon realizing that I still largely felt the same despite my newfound freedom. In recent years, this recognition has remained vivid, sparking my curiosity about why predicting outcomes in the face of uncertainty is so difficult.

Whether anticipating a geopolitical event, forecasting stock market trends, or simply contemplating life’s next move, accurate prediction is an ever-present challenge. As I began to journal in earnest some years ago, I uncovered a fascinating trend hidden between the mundane details: my predictions were fraught with overblown concern and startling inaccuracy. Delving into the complexities of prediction and expertise, it becomes clear that many factors—from biases and cognitive distortions to the whims of randomness—shape our perceptions of certainty and accuracy. Despite these hurdles, new research offers a glimmer of hope.

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What Two Writers Taught Me About How to Think

In 1949, a college junior named Barbara Beattie wrote a letter for a school journalism assignment. We can only speculate on Beattie’s youthful expectations: Was she so naive to expect a response, or were these different times? She’d written playwright Arthur Miller at a time when the Broadway run of his most famous work, The Death of a Salesman, was in full swing. He had every reason to ignore a college student’s inquiries into the “formal genesis” of his now-legendary work. What Beattie received–a sprawling and deeply thoughtful essay on man’s common and timeless tragedies–must have impacted her greatly. After all, she’s kept it for seventy-five years. Beattie’s daughter found the letter when helping her mother, now 94, move out of her home.

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Is My Rent Too High?

In normal times, rent prices, like most everything else, slowly yet surely increase at about 2-3% per year. This is inflation. But in terms of the housing market, these aren’t normal times. In the pandemic era, as demand surged in supply-restricted markets, both sale and rent prices soared, with year-over-year inflation rates at 30% or more in some markets. To speak generally of the world of pricing, what goes up might come down. So, when I approached our landlord a few weeks back about lowering the price of our rent, she wasn’t so surprised.

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