Is This Time Different?

From a market perspective, history has always favored the unfazed, the patient, the forgetful. Drastic action in times of great uncertainty is almost always the wrong move. Time and again—just like now—people convinced themselves of imminent disaster. And in nearly all cases, they were wrong. Financial writers and hardened optimists are right to remind us: “This time isn’t different.”

But I’ll be straight with you: This time might be different.

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Is My Rent Too High?

In normal times, rent prices, like most everything else, slowly yet surely increase at about 2-3% per year. This is inflation. But in terms of the housing market, these aren’t normal times. In the pandemic era, as demand surged in supply-restricted markets, both sale and rent prices soared, with year-over-year inflation rates at 30% or more in some markets. To speak generally of the world of pricing, what goes up might come down. So, when I approached our landlord a few weeks back about lowering the price of our rent, she wasn’t so surprised.

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Four Years of Financial Independence: The Slow Growth

For four years I’ve watched something slowly bloom. In my old life, the “before time” you might call it, I moved from task to task. If I wasn’t working, I unknowingly made a practice of turning recreational or hobbyist pursuits into something that, from an outsider’s perspective, looked an awful lot like work. Goals and accolades were everything, and the more quantifiable, the better. But the farther I’ve separated myself from this life in space and time, the more clarity I’ve gained. 

Grasping for metaphors, I was tempted to explain this budding awareness as a slowly growing flower. But for perhaps all the wrong reasons, I hesitated to describe my growth and awareness as floral, preferring to drop the metaphor. But I can’t quite shake it, because I have watched something slowly grow. It’s not me that has bloomed–again, all the wrong imagery–but it is the world I could not see then. I could not see the flawed logic buried in the cold and wet earth because I identified with it. It was my life, so I could not reject what protected me. And four years later I’ve watched something slowly take root.

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The Psychology Behind Poor Investments and Other Important Decisions

When we make important decisions, we are often not as rational or objective as we’d like to believe. The base rate fallacy is the tendency to misjudge the probability of a situation by not accounting for all relevant information. This cognitive bias affects everything from first impressions to voting preferences to broad market behavior.

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QA12: Will A Life Of Financial Independence Meet Expectations?

We’re back to the digital mailbag to answer your questions!

For this week:

  • An update on markets and our personal finance situation
  • The role of dividends in growth and withdrawal assumptions
  • Expectations vs reality on a life of financial independence
  • Our experience with health insurance without employer-sponsored plans
  • Real estate investing: an update on our experiences and economics as remote landlords
  • Health insurance considerations for long-term travel
  • Short- to medium-term savings goals (like a house) versus saving for retirement
  • Loss of purpose without a traditional job
  • So much more!
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