The Psychology Behind Poor Investments and Other Important Decisions

When we make important decisions, we are often not as rational or objective as we’d like to believe. The base rate fallacy is the tendency to misjudge the probability of a situation by not accounting for all relevant information. This cognitive bias affects everything from first impressions to voting preferences to broad market behavior.

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QA12: Will A Life Of Financial Independence Meet Expectations?

We’re back to the digital mailbag to answer your questions!

For this week:

  • An update on markets and our personal finance situation
  • The role of dividends in growth and withdrawal assumptions
  • Expectations vs reality on a life of financial independence
  • Our experience with health insurance without employer-sponsored plans
  • Real estate investing: an update on our experiences and economics as remote landlords
  • Health insurance considerations for long-term travel
  • Short- to medium-term savings goals (like a house) versus saving for retirement
  • Loss of purpose without a traditional job
  • So much more!
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Dr. Jim Dahle of the White Coat Investor on Building the Ideal Life

Jim Dahle is the founder of the White Coat Investor, a widely consumed personal finance and investing blog and podcast specifically designed for physicians and other high-income careers. What Jim created in 2011 as a simple blog has grown into a multi-media empire that now employs fifteen people and hosts content from a range of columnists.

Jim has cut back from his full-time (plus) emergency physician career and White Coat Investor responsibilities to focus on what makes life worth living, and that’s where I wanted to pick up this conversation. Jim is a climber, husband, and father of four. Today we discuss how he’s managed to step away, at least slightly, from his hard-charging career and blogging days to what he’s now describing as his ideal life.

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The Great American Student Loan Debt with Emma Crawford

In America, student loan debt has exploded over the last twenty years, with the average inflation-adjusted federal loan debt per student rising from under $29,000 in 2011 to nearly $40,000 in 2020. Students and their parents are paying an increasingly costly price for college education, outpacing growth in expected starting salaries.

After more than three years, loan payments are coming due again after the expiration of a Covid-era forbearance program put in place under President Trump and extended under President Biden. My guest today, Emma Crawford, is intimately familiar with student loans as both a borrower as well as a former university aid advisor, and now as a financial planner.

Emma Crawford is the former Director of Financial Wellness and Financial Aid Advising for the University of Wisconsin School of Medicine and Public Health. She holds the Certified Financial Planner (CFP) designation and is a fee-only financial planner for Perk Planning, based out of Madison, Wisconsin. Emma joins me on the show today to discuss the evolving and complicated world of student loans for the first two-thirds of the show. The final third of the interview is dedicated to discussing the equally convoluted world of financial planners and advisors. We discuss the nature of fee-only advising and who may find this type of service appropriate.

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QA11: Laying It Out in Simple Terms

We’re back to the digital mailbag to answer your questions!

For this week:

  • How has my lifestyle evolved since achieving financial independence and how do I spend my time?
  • Updated thoughts on money and markets
  • Are we putting too much faith in institutions like Vanguard?
  • Can and should life insurance policies be used for retirement savings?
  • Tax avoidance versus accepting higher tax rates
  • What is a Simple IRA and how does it differ from a 401(k)? Can I still do Roth conversions?
  • Savings rates are great! Should I pay less on my loans to maximize my savings?
  • Big picture: Where do I start on getting my financial life together?
  • Outreach and presentations
  • So much more!
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The One Time to Be Average with Dave Rosen

Dave Rosen is a climber and ophthalmologist in his final year of residency. And Dave grew up like so many of us: broadly exposed to the importance of money and taught a thing or two about saving, but investing was a foreign concept and his lack of knowledge was a source of shame.

While Dave skimmed over it, he’s no slouch as a climber. He has bagged a pile of double-digit boulder problems up to V12, sent 5.13c, and developed numerous boulder problems, particularly in the South Mountain area near Phoenix where he and his wife lived for medical school for four years. He is hard-working, analytical, and pragmatic in his career and life approach. 

In this conversation, we discuss how Dave found climbing from the world of canyoneering, his early exposure to money and how that has markedly changed in recent years, the constant pull of greener grass, working backward from an ideal lifestyle, and the ethical and moral dilemmas of early retirement.

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Mike Piper: Down To The Essence Of Smart Money Management

Mike Piper is a CPA and the creator of the Oblivious Investor blog, where he teaches a philosophy of simple and low-maintenance investing.

Mike’s simple philosophy distills down to three primary principles:

  1. Diversify your portfolio
  2. Minimize costs (commissions, fees, mutual fund expenses, taxes)
  3. Ignore the noise.

Mike began his career as a CPA before realizing he could support himself by writing books. Surprisingly, he left his secure job during the 2008 financial crisis. He has gone on to publish seventeen books and is widely considered an expert in social security, tax, and a number of other personal finance topics. His work has been featured in the Wall Street Journal, Forbes, and Morningstar, to name a few.

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Jeff and Priti Wright: You Might Need a Sabbatical

Today on episode 64 I’m excited to welcome Priti and Jeff Wright, two accomplished young professional alpinists from Seattle, WA. In 2020, Priti, a software developer, and Jeff, a mechanical engineer at Boeing, embarked on a year-long sabbatical to travel across the globe and climb alpine objectives in Patagonia, France, and Pakistan, finishing by the beach in Hawaii.

The trip was wildly successful, even amid the raging pandemic, including ascents of the Cerro Torre, the six classic North Faces of the Alps in a single season (including the Eiger North Face in winter), culminating in the first ascent of K6 Central and the third ascent of K6 West—both 7000+-meter peaks—in the Karakoram Range of Pakistan.

In contrast to early retirement, Priti and Jeff make the compelling case for a traditional career peppered with sabbaticals. This episode is filled with lifestyle and career philosophy, planning concepts, detailed financial considerations, and just a damn good time. And they are even planning their next sabbatical in 2024, which will look drastically different than their trip in 2020. You won’t want to miss this one.

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Heather Larsen: Risk And Reward In Outdoor Careers

Today on episode 61 I’m pleased to welcome Heather Larsen, pro slackliner and climber and lover of southern Utah’s desert heat. What is probably less known about Heather is that, following humble beginnings, she graduated at the height of the Great Recession with a double major in finance and economics.

In the intervening years, she struggled greatly to find work in her field, even competing for bank teller jobs with 20-year finance veterans. Out west she found work in seasonal park service positions, growing more and more fond of the outdoors, eventually discovering climbing and slacklining.

Heather could have easily fallen into a mindset of defeat. But with persistence, she was eventually able to secure a career in financial reporting, enabling her preferred lifestyle balance of elite outdoor adventure and self-made financial security.

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The Great Comfort of Longevity in the Stock Market

Since the financial crisis of 2008, two dominant views on stock market investing have emerged:

  1. Stock market investing is volatile and risky, akin to gambling.
  2. Stock market investing is reliable and free money.

The Great Recession produced a decline in overall equity values in the range of 50%+ from 2007 to early 2009. The event created a lasting and widespread change in mindsets around personal finance, even what it means to be securely middle class. However, for those that stayed the course, the subsequent Great Bull Market produced exorbitant wealth for almost anyone investing in almost anything.

If there’s a lesson to be learned here, it’s that market growth and declines are cyclical. These cycles are influenced by a complex blend of fiscal policy, business practices, and perhaps most important of all—animal spirits: human behavior and emotion. To balance risk and reward, one should invest broadly in the market as a whole and increase the investing timeline. The latter in particular is easier said than done. In this post today, we quantify the power of longevity in the market. We have reason to rejoice, so long as we can hang on!

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