From a market perspective, history has always favored the unfazed, the patient, the forgetful. Drastic action in times of great uncertainty is almost always the wrong move. Time and again—just like now—people convinced themselves of imminent disaster. And in nearly all cases, they were wrong. Financial writers and hardened optimists are right to remind us: “This time isn’t different.”
But I’ll be straight with you: This time might be different.
Listen to the Podcast
Never before in modern American history have so few people held so much economic power. Leaders have swiftly dismantled constitutional checks and balances, sending shockwaves across the globe. “When America sneezes, the rest of the world gets sick,” an Australian shopkeeper told me in September. He’s right. In a global economy, walls don’t work.
Two weeks ago, I almost posted an essay with the familiar “this too shall pass” refrain, like this one from 2020. The economy looked strong, and I naïvely believed one man couldn’t—or more likely wouldn’t—do much harm. The “Liberation Day” tariff announcement changed my view dramatically.
Economists overwhelmingly describe these trade policies as a self-inflicted wound with severe economic risk. The damage to global supply chains, trust, and alliances will not be temporary. America’s standing has already weakened, and as new partnerships emerge, the world is turning its back on us. I’m not big on predictions, but here’s one: History will remember this as one of the modern world’s greatest unforced errors.
For over 150 years, markets have rested on the steady expansion of global trade. Economic growth—and our personal financial plans—assume that baseline. Mercenary mercantilism is not baked into the Trinity Study. The beloved 4% Rule doesn’t account for princely geopolitics gone rogue. Currently, bonds and international markets are not a haven. We are in uncharted territory.
Still, this is not a call to panic or liquidate. If you’re saving, keep saving. If I was still investing, I’d stay the course. But for those without a regular income stream, or those betting it all on early retirement, now is the time for a gut check. I’ve long argued that stepping away completely isn’t wise—not just for financial reasons, but for mental and spiritual well-being. In these uncertain times, that belief feels even more urgent. Use your skills. Stay engaged. Even modest work can ground you.
I know this sounds dark, but I find it important to acknowledge the seriousness of this moment. It’s the hardest it’s ever been for me to feel optimistic about the future. But I’m holding firm to that optimism, and I hope you will too. Let’s put down the phones, close the laptops, and turn off the TVs. Let’s reconnect with neighbors, take a walk, and remember what a gift it is to be alive right now, even amidst all this uncertainty.
In historic moments like this one, focus on what you can control. And what you can control is how you respond to things you can’t.