You Know A Recession is Coming, Right?

A year ago, in December 2018, I wrote two posts concerning the “imminent” recession: Five Ways to Recession-Proof Your Life and Keeping the “Safe” in Safe Withdrawal Rate. Well, a year has come and gone, and as I write this in December 2019, we are at yet another all-time high in the stock market. America’s longest bull market continues gouging ahead like those fiery beasts in the narrow streets of Pamplona, Spain.

Is this time different?

For those of you out there beginning any sort of retirement (early or not), is your timing perfect or incredibly unfortunate?

How about if you are wondering if now is the best (or worst) time to start investing?

Let’s have a look…

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Financial Advisor: Who Needs One?

The stock market is scary. I completely understand; there was once a time when I wouldn’t touch it with a ten foot pole. In fact, according to Ally Invest, 65% of survey respondents are intimidated by investing. It seems like a Wild West proposition, and surely only well-trained professionals are equipped to predict the future success of individual companies. You realize the potential of investing, but you wouldn’t know how to start. It’s probably best to pay a financial advisor for this service, right?

Some say the answer to whether you need a financial advisor is “maybe,” but I’m more strongly in the “no” camp. Here’s why.

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Chasing Your Dreams is Probably a Bad Idea

When it comes to jobs and careers, parents the world over tell their children more-or-less the same message: you can do anything you want in life. Follow your dreams, and the rest will work out in the end. Of course, those same parents leave early each morning to go to a job that — as statistics show — they probably don’t love.

Years later we find reality to be something a little bit different than a dream. Work is still work, we might have a boss with an ever-so-slightly different vision, and MY GOD why is that woman using the blender right now?!!

So, should we chase our dreams? Are we being misled by pages of digital content and feel-good aphorisms created by outliers? Let’s first begin with a true story.

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Should I Buy a Home? Part 2: Opportunity Cost

Howdy! Last week on Should I Buy a Home (Part 1), we established that home ownership isn’t really a good “investment.” Make sure you go back and take a gander at that post first. But, when compared to the cost of renting all along, is home ownership still a better long-term financial decision, especially for early retirement? Or did we pay the biggest expense of all…opportunity cost?

Stick with me here. This sort of stuff was never my forte years ago, but I’ve grown to love this like Mrs. CC grew to love sushi. We can all learn to love raw fish, seaweed, rice, and investment return analysis.

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Reader Case Study: Maximize Adventure or Career?

Full disclosure, I’m posting this week’s case study as an interview, but no one is being interviewed here. This post is the amalgamation of several email discussions I’ve had with readers in the last two to three months. The premise is this: folks out there know some form of career is necessary, but they’re overwhelmed by the idea of 40+ years of something that isn’t the dream job. Oh yeah, and they’re obsessed with rock climbing.

I’m going to outline below the basic way we’ve structured our lives to be career-focused for only a small portion of our adult lives. From there, we’re free to pursue whatever it is that gets us giddy (which can still be a career).

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Part 2: The CC Family Investing Strategy

Wat Dok Ueang, Chaing Mai, Thailand

Investing Strategy: Where Exactly is Our Money?

This is Part 2 in a series. Check out Part 1 for our investing strategy and asset allocation.

Now you have a sense of our investing strategy in terms of asset allocation, but that’s not helping you get started. Let’s take a look at some common investment “buckets” and how we are dividing out our investments.

It’s easy to get lost in the details, so let’s break it down to the basics right up front. No more paralysis by analysis. Below are our top five pillars of a sound investing strategy.

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Part 1: The CC Family Investing Strategy:

Cactus, Baja California, Mexico

Philosophy and Asset Allocation

We’ve spoken now in shades of vagueness about our investments and investing strategy. We’re focused first and foremost on simply getting folks to save more. Begin with allocating the majority of your effort to increasing the gap between money in and money out. Slowly chip away, with a goal of spending less than half of your income. If you can make step-changes in this area, you are light years ahead of most Americans, and frankly most humans. So yeah, start there.

…We’re focused first and foremost on simply getting folks to save more

The next element of this game is getting your new-found savings to start making money for you. Your traditional savings and checking accounts are not your friend. With an average interest rate on a typical savings account at 0.08% APY (!), your money is losing value over time as your courageous dollar fights a valiant, but fruitless battle against the tyrant forces of inflation (current inflation rate is around 2%). Remember, goods and services today will cost more next year. You either need more income or higher interest rates on your savings, just to keep up!

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