History provides context to the current events of our lives. If you snoozed through your high school history class, the global shutdown and pandemic of the novel coronavirus might seem like the worst event to ever face mankind. While it is certainly not, many of us might (or will soon) find the pandemic to be the largest global crisis we’ve faced in our lives. It begs the question: Do tough times make tough people?
Those who do not learn from history are doomed to repeat it.”
George Santayana
Ancient Ruins
Less than three months ago I parked my tiny Euro car in a cramped gravel parking lot at the Valley of Temples, in Agrigento, Sicily. After wasting 20 minutes walking in the wrong direction—hard to imagine given that the temples are clearly visible from miles away—we arrived at the historical park.
I’ll blame the “valley” misnomer—the park is on a ridgeline.
I stood in awe of these great ruins, amazed at the scale of human ingenuity of an ancient society. It took an entire summer for a team of workers to properly fix our hail-ravaged roof in 2017 AD.
Could the ancient Greeks have imagined that we would be staring at the ruins of their civilization?
Interestingly, the timely release of the Netflix series Pandemic: How to Prevent an Outbreak sets a similar scene. At one point, Dennis Carroll (Former USAID Emerging Threats Director—we found it fun to call him Taos) stands in Rome admiring ancient Roman architecture. He too wonders if the Romans would ever envision modern man standing over the crumbling ruins of their great society.
Carroll then prophetically warns how an uncontrolled virus outbreak could render our modern society obsolete. This was all filmed and produced presumably before COVID-19 had infected a single person.
Whoa.
How many of us live our lives assuming that this degree of ease, comfort and prosperity will live on forever…?
This Will Go on Forever…Right?
But I often wonder if we, especially Americans, fancy ourselves the modern-day equivalent of the ancient Greeks or Romans (or Mayans, etc). How many of us live our lives assuming that this degree of ease, comfort and prosperity will live on forever, or for at least our lifetimes? If we have children, we might be thinking of their lifetimes too, but rarely any longer.
Must-read books like Collapse by Jared Diamond, author of the Pulitzer-Prize winning work Guns, Germs, and Steel, highlight how conditions are easily created to decimate grand civilizations.
The messages are disturbing, but important. After all, maybe they’ll keep you from going to a backyard BBQ tonight, where uncle Billy might spray you down with the nuances of the Ford Flathead V8…and a sufficient viral load.
No matter how bad things feel in our society at any given point, one can without hesitation find times in the past that were infinitely worse, but surely different.
History for Comfort During Tough Times
Instead of feeling defeated and crying into a pillow, punching drywall, or starting a social media spat with a high school drop-out on Facebook, I draw comfort in turning to history.
No matter how bad things feel in our society at any given point, one can without hesitation find times in the past that were infinitely worse, but surely different. Furthermore, we can identify times of great prosperity that followed those times. Finally, and most importantly, we can identify the courses of action that led to a course correction and subsequent prosperity.
This line of thinking allows the seasoned long-term investor to take a deep breath on a tanking stock market, for instance. Having studied The Shocking Headlines of the 2008 Financial Crisis—and most importantly, knowing the period of growth that followed the collapse—the hardened investor can steel him or herself against all the voices of hysteria and uncertainty.
In the case of the long-term investor, it is his or her inaction that most likely produces desirable outcomes. Those who continue with a dollar-cost-average strategy (planned in times of prosperity)—or those who do nothing at all—will almost certainly outperform those who try and skillfully time the market.
But let’s forget about investing and just consider life first.
Let’s time travel to a life that might have begun around 1895. From there we will find decades of dark, sordid history, spiced with times of incredible growth and prosperity. At least for some.
Shall we?
1895-1995: A Swinging Century of Tough Times
In terms of modern society, within the last 200 years or so, I’ve often thought about the generation born around 1895, +/- 10 years or so.
Consider for a moment the life events of someone born around this time who lived to a ripe old age of 100. Man, if you even kinda-sorta know your history, you know some shit went down from 1895-1995!
Born into Depression
To kick things off, these poor individuals were born into a time of severe economic depression. The Panic of 1893 is relatively unknown, now greatly overshadowed by the Great Depression (yeah, they experienced that too). Times were not good.
The Great War
For a young man, by 1914-1915, especially in Europe, there was a good chance you were headed to the front lines of one of mankind’s nastiest wars, World War I. By spring of 1917, America joined much of Europe in the desolate expanse of trenches and the quagmire of endless bloody stalemate. There were over 40 million casualties in the end.
World War II
Depending on location, between 1939-1945, 75 million people lost their lives across Europe, Eurasia, Africa, the Pacific, and the Atlantic. Many unfortunate souls were involved in both of the great world wars.
Can you imagine living through both of these experiences?
Life during these wars, especially in central Europe and the Pacific, is hard to fathom. Bomb-riddled urban moonscapes and war-torn villages ravaged any sense of optimism. No words can do justice to the horror of those experiences.
The List of Tough Times Goes On
The Cold War, the assassination of a president, the Vietnam War, the Civil Rights movement, other mass protests and years of polarizing discontent.
What did I miss between World War 1 and World War 2? Oh of course, the Spanish Flu, the Dust Bowl and the crippling economic free-fall of the Great Depression. Many recessions. And this is an American-centric list. Some places and peoples experienced far worse.
For all those terrible times mentioned above, there were equally many periods of tremendous growth and prosperity: The roaring 20s, the massive economic expansion of the 1950s and early 1960s, pretty much all of the 1980s and 1990s. Societies changed, and conditions improved for almost anyone, to some degree.
I find comfort in perspective.
A Modern Comparison of Tough Times
Compare that past sense of dread to what we face today. Here in Colorado, March has turned to April, and April to May. The sun is shining, the weather is some of the year’s best. Folks are out walking, riding bikes, or otherwise enjoying the modern comforts of the digital era: Zoom calls with friends and family, Netflix series, endless Wi-Fi.
I certainly don’t want to sound insensitive. There are in excess of 30 million people without jobs, and sources of income are becoming increasingly insecure. People are sick and dying. As of Sunday May 10, more than four million people have been infected with COVID-19 and 279,000 have died. Roughly one third of total cases and deaths have occurred in the United States.
Are we taking this seriously enough? Can the staggering numbers described above be the result of mass misinformation, far too many shoulder shrugs, and an indifference to the world beyond ourselves and our deserved sense of personal freedom to do what we want when we want?
We certainly fought for these freedoms, but might we now be fighting against them?
Some would argue that U.S. virus trends are at least partially propagated by “…an era of entitlement, of selfishness, of egotism, and of limited empathy.”
Time will show which behaviors prove more costly in the end. Don’t believe me? Good, you shouldn’t. I’m not an infectious disease professional. However, take this sobering yet perhaps hopeful message from someone who is.
The U.S. death toll alone from COVID-19 now exceeds the American casualties suffered in the Vietnam, Iraq, and Afghanistan wars…combined. We are also facing dire economic and mental health crises. History won’t forget these days.
If you are going through hell, keep going.
Winston Churchill
How Will We Use This? Tough Times and Tough People
We will be unpacking the lessons of this global event for years to come. Or at least that’s my hope.
I just recently discovered the aptly-named Hardcore History podcast by Dan Carlin. Carlin often ponders whether people who lived through these tough times were rendered a more tough and venerable population.
Do tough times make tough people? What would someone born in 1895 think of us today?
The Greatest Generation fought and lived through the Second World War. I’m barely a millennial (a “cusper,” if you will), and I have to admit that I often find it difficult to identify with my own generation.
Until now, I’d hardly describe us as tough, but that’s me. What’s a good adjective for our generation?
However, will our generation rise from the ashes of this event a new badass and even greater force, having grown thicker skin in response to a global trauma? Will we someday be called the “Even Greater Generation?” I say that a bit tongue-in-cheek, but it’s hard to work with a better name than the “Greatest Generation.”
Will we lay the groundwork for the next phase of good times with a unique outlook, optimism, and sense of ingenuity? Can this be a major (and positive) historical turning point?
I don’t see why not.
Well, let’s finish Tiger King first. No need to be hasty.
“The gem cannot be polished without friction, nor man perfected without trials.”
Chinese Proverb
Summary
There’s a light at the end of the tunnel. I still can’t say this won’t get worse before it gets better, but it will get better.
And no matter how bad things get, we as human beings have seen worse. Much worse. Take comfort in the fact that in so many times in history, really bad times have been followed by really good times.
Will we grow tough from this experience? I can’t answer that question, but you can. Let’s continue on this idea for next week, where we’ll discuss some actionable tips to make sure we get on the good foot.
How do you think these events are shaping people today? Are we really any different from those who lived 100 years ago?
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Listening to Hard Core History will indeed convince you this is only a small pothole in life’s highway. No way, by any stretch, are these hard times. The current US death toll only represents 2% of total US deaths this year. Meaning it is 50 times more likely something not related to covid will kill you in 2020.
Agreed. Certainly not hard times by historical standards, but hard-er times when living with a recency bias. I suppose if you came of age in the last 10-15 years (especially if largely unaffected in the 2008 financial crisis) these days may feel particularly gloomy compared to the previous years-a-plenty. I’ve always been fascinated with emotional fortitude of people during crises, perceived or otherwise. I suppose we can argue in the margins about whether or not the pandemic is a crisis, but we can talk endlessly about behaviors, emotions, and outlooks.
One note on your stats though: I’m seeing COVID deaths to date as 2% of all of 2019 deaths, not YTD 2020. Either way, chances are you won’t get it, and there’s an even lower likelihood that you’ll die. But love it or leave it, the world doesn’t return to normal while this puppy mills about.